“Everything is Just Fine” said absolutely no-one.
Despite the imminent arrival of the King of the North, the tendency for politicians of all stripes to insist on their easily disproved “successes” simply increases the palpable sense of disgust with the entire political class the world over. One imagines precipitately dropping approval ratings for King Andy by the New Year.
Labour Smiles Through the Pain
Labour’s leaders now appear to accept that Starmer’s premiership is ending, while simultaneously trying to avoid admitting it publicly. Pressing “Publish” on this week’s TWOP at the unearthly hour of 10:30am, dares the PM to announce “an orderly process for the transfer of power” (without the tedious necessity of an election or anything gauche like that) at around 4:15pm.
After Burnham’s Makerfield victory on Thursday (excellent early morning commentary from TWOP https://twop.org.uk/helloandy means that we can avoid too much Burnhamism in this weekly roundup) an eerie quiet has descended in which Sir Keir lugubriously considers his future with his family down at Chequers “Anyone for another kickabout?” The condemned man missed the goal again.
Some worries for Nige from his old friend Rupert
Burnham successfully attracts sufficient anti-Starmer votes for a convincing victory
In a round of status-check telephone calls on Friday afternoon both Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander apparently told Sir Keir that he should announce a timetable for his departure (Jack Fenwick & Kate Whannel, BBC News, 19th June 2026 “PM under pressure from Labour MPs and ministers to set timetable for exit.”)
Neither Burnham nor Streeting have scheduled any media over the weekend and the general Westminster assumption seems to be that they will do a deal (anyone for Streeting as Chancellor in a Burnham Cabinet? No, we thought not on the whole) that would allow Burnham to succeed Starmer before the Labour Party Conference in October without the democratic camouflage of an actual leadership election. This election avoidance tactic seems very strange positioning for Andy “Let’s introduce PR and finally reform the Lords once and for all” Burnham.
Given so many leading Labour figures’ exasperated obloquy at the Tories habit of substituting leaders into 10 Downing Street without any electoral confirmation, this is bound to become a problem for Burnham as his approval ratings inevitably hit the skids the moment he starts “clarifying” the policy positions he had the latitude to commit to without either the responsibility for implementation or the requirement to hold the all-too-friable Labour coalition together.
Preston Davey
Little 13-month old Preston was in the process of being adopted by homosexual partners James Varley, 37 and John McGowan-Fazakerley, 32 through Manchester regional adoption agency, Adoption Now, when Varley killed him in July 2023. In the four months that Preston was in this couple’s “care” at their Blackpool home the poor chap sustained over 40 traumatic injuries and was treated at Blackpool Victoria Hospital on three occasions, having apparently suffered a seizure, severe bruising and a broken arm. James Varley was the safeguarding lead at a secondary school that recently became part of the Blackburn Diocese’s Cidari Multi-Academy Trust. The post-mortem revealed that Preston was being sexually abused by the men who were in the process of adopting him.
Oldham Council have restarted an independent child safeguarding practice review following the trial’s conclusion, but really this is too little, too late. Adoption Now should be suspended, Blackpool Victoria Hospital’s child abuse referral process should be examined and recalibrated and Oldham Council’s own social services department should be placed under external management similar to the “special measures” regime in schools, Cidari’s and the Blackburn Diocese’s safeguarding appointments process should be suspended under investigation and a wider, independent national study urgently empanelled to establish whether there is now an incipient bias against assessing the parenting suitability of all prospective adopters.
Enough is enough and Preston Davey’s fate was a lot too much. Truly sickening.
SVR Incompetence Is No Real Excuse
Roman Lavrynovych and Stanislav Carpiuc were found guilty of arson attacks on Sir Keir’s old car and his former London home in 2025. The BBC’s Panorama investigators discovered that the arsonists were controlled via Telegram and paid for (putatively) by a Russian “diplomat”, Evgeny Lyukshin, the son of Alexander Lyukshin, a senior adviser at the Russian Foreign Ministry and presumed SVR (Foreign Intelligence) officer (Daniel De Simone, Tom Beal & Olga Malchevska, BBC News, 15th June 2026 “Russia was behind arson attacks targeting PM.”)
The formerly respected SVR Western Interference strategy seems to have devolved to “Let’s throw as many darts at the board as possible – some may stick.” The Lyukshin family’s summer holiday destination had better be Crimea instead of Bognor again this year. (The Mriya Resort looks rather jolly in a brutalist Norman Foster sort of way.) Oh wait, Crimea? Is that a problem?
Massive Drone Strike on Moscow
Ukraine launched its largest drone offensive against Russia on Thursday 18th June, deploying more than 200 drones including hybrid “Bars” drone-missiles at Moscow. A major Gazprom oil refinery in the Kapotnya district on Moscow’s south-eastern edge was struck, although possibly by a defective Russian air-defence missile (Pjotr Sauer, The Guardian, 18th June 2026 “What did Ukraine target in Moscow and how significant was the drone attack?”)
The resultant plume of dense black smoke darkened the Moscow skyline making the “progress” of Putin’s war increasingly clear to citizens struggling by on the home front.
When is a Strait a Never-Ending Circle?
TWOP’s highly tuned international relations antenna detected that the 60-day truce brokered by Pakistan between the USA and Iran signed by The Donald in the sumptuous setting of Emmanuel Macron’s post-G7 Versailles dinner was very likely to face almost immediate difficulties.
However, it is not with any satisfaction that we note that on Saturday Iran announced the immediate re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz because of the entirely predictable continuation of Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. (MEHR news agency, 20th June 2026, “Iran closes Hormuz Strait after US-Israel violations of MoU.”)
James “I never wanted to be a public intellectual” Vance, is on the case and is heading to Switzerland (C-Span, 20th June 2026.) “Despite the headlines, things are actually getting better there [in Lebanon.] Things have actually calmed down a little bit.” There’s nothing like (unfounded) optimism for a quick soundbite. No worries though: Vance is holding “all the cards.” (Overused metaphor alert.)
In preparation for just this eventuality TWOP prepared a comparative analysis of the differences between the 2015 JCPOA (“that horrible deal” ®️ Donald J. Trump) and Trump’s own 2026 MoU (“Brilliant.”)
The cost of Trump’s Iranian escapade had already reached US$99bn by 28th May (Matt Colyar & Brendan LaCerda, Moody’s Analytics, 28th May 2026 “The Costs of the Iran War.”) That total had probably grown to US$130bn by the date of the MoU (Edward Wong & Aruni Soni, New York Times [paywall], 19th June 2026 “The Costs of the Iran War: Thousands of Lives and Billions of Dollars.”) It seems pretty clear that, despite Marco Rubio’s counterfactual assertions, the MoU represents an enormous step backwards from the closely negotiated, multi-nationally enforced, independently verified JCPOA.
Friends Like These
White House correspondent Daniele Compatangelo revealed that having contacted the US President by telephone (and really what’s that all about?) for comment on the Iranian and Ukrainian situations, Donald Trump sidetracked the conversation in to a strange blast against Italian PM, Giorgia Meloni, saying: “”I don’t know what to tell you! She begged me to take a picture with her! She wanted a photo with me so badly, I might not have done it otherwise, but I felt sorry for her!” (Daniele Compatangelo in Italian, 19th June 2026, La7.)
The former political fellow travellers went nuclear with the Italian PM going straight to insta reel (@giorgiameloni, 20th June 2026) to say, inter alia, that Italy and its PM never “beg” for anything. Of course, man-child Trump was never likely to back down or apologise, so instead clapped back insisting that his version was true, only for Meloni to insta a statement in English saying: “these constant, unprovoked attacks are senseless.” Italy may not have qualified for the World Cup (in itself, pazzia!) but a Meloni 3 – 1 Trump scoreline was a respectable result for Meloni and Italy.
One does wonder about the US President’s mental state. Can he make it to 20th January, 2029? Cold comfort as, if not, Trump would only be succeeded by Vance anyway. The fact that the Vice-President is so obviously pretending to go along with “the madness” for now does not strengthen Vance’s case for the succession.
This week felt explicitly transitional, despite the Makerfield excitements. Labour appears to be preparing for a post-Starmer future without openly admitting so. The Trump administration continues to insist flagrantly that Middle Eastern tensions are easing, while events suggest the opposite. Britain’s safeguarding systems are again being forced to explain how multiple warning signs were missed. Everywhere one looks, political leaders seem increasingly determined to project confidence while underlying problems remain stubbornly unresolved.
The smiles remain firmly in place. The pain is becoming harder to disguise.
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