The Week in UK Politics #31

The Week in UK Politics #31

BRITAIN: BROKEN AND BORED.
The coincidence of quite so many indicators of the Island Nation, the Seat of Empire, the Mother of Parliaments, keeling over and capsizing beneath the waves o’er which we used to rule, is “a little troubling.”

Balls Up at the Beeb

OK. So the DG and News CEO both resign and I guess Samir Shah (ChairMAN for heaven’s sake, Chairs are inanimate objects) issues a grovelling apology, but really? Really? This is all the wrong way round. Davie’s & Turness‘s failures were ones of management, not execution and follow similar patterns to Vylan @Glasto, BBC Arabic and the Hoyo Films documentary booster about Gaza narrated by a Hamas official’s son, Abdullah Al-Yazouri.

All these broadcast disasters are united by a commercial structure error and connected managerial incompetence. The structure error is, to the disbelieving horror of the generally right-wing know-nothings, that “outsourcing” production across a large organisation leaves no single point of executive control. Ironically then, the effort to “commercialise” the Beeb’s output, beloved of the “privatisers”, has in fact radically reduced control mechanisms to the point where BBC top management have no actual control over broadcast. This is compounded by the layering of middle management types that would not be unfamiliar to anyone who works in the NHS. Idiot “executives” who create committees to avoid responsibility and conform to out-of-date guidelines designed for different situations are ticking boxes without any actual ability, sense or purpose other than their own salary justification.

The Trump re-edit (“Trump: A Second Chance”) was broadcast ages ago (October 2024, Ed), but was actually the work of independent production company October Films. Some idiot journo pretending to be a “producer” and some VT/Sound editor should have been forced to issue an apology months ago and October Films compelled to relinquish any contractual relationship with the BBC for evermore. It looks very much as though someone called Neil Breakwell, a former BBC Newsnight producer (predictably!) should have taken the hit, resigned from October Films and spent the rest of his natural days working for disadvantaged and/or sick children in a Manchester suburb. This should have been dealt with along the “management” chain, but of course every “manager” involved merely tried to find 1,623 reasons why it wasn’t their fault.

This has all the marks of vintage BBC comedy W1A (which I caught on youtube recently, but which is still, ironically, on the Beeb’s own iPlayer.) I now call for the immediate resignation of an Ian Fletcher lookalike and/or the appearance of Hugh Bonneville on the Graham Norton Show – stat!

This is all just absolute TOSH and actually “slightly annoying.” It is the BBC’s management “system” that is broken and someone from McKinsey should be brought in to literally remove swathes of “executive management” throughout the News Division. I have been reading about the 1984/’5 Miners’ Strike etc and I deduce that the BBC needs its own Sir Ian MacGregor (sadly, 1912-’98.)

Remit: three years to reduce the Beeb’s “executive management” headcount by 75%, reverse the externalisation of production (!) and install real leaders who will actually lead the Corporation out of its sheep-like blobbiness. (These may be Oxbridge-educated blokes from the South-East. Sorry.) Three years will not get the job “done”, but could serve as the precursor for a new Charter (?due 2028?) splitting News from Entertainment, privatising the latter and enabling a move to subscription. Yes, I know: it’s never going to happen – blocked by seven committees of “executive managers” who need to confirm that the viewer questionnaire results are weighted by self-identified gender ratios first. Nuts: it’s that or wholesale demolition. But given his post-election litigeousness, it’s more than likely that The Donald will sue the Beeb just for the Hell of it and wrecks it financially anyway, so that may be fun.

[NB, other consultancy firms exist, but when the real proverbial hits the fan, there is no substitute for the clever hard-nosed posh guys from McK, which becomes the “safe” choice precisely because they really don’t care one jot.]

WAIT!!! There’s more…

Budget 2025: RACHE’s DO OR DIE MOMENT

Rachel Reeves has been signalling for weeks that her forthcoming Budget may break one of the few election pledges on taxes in the Labour manifesto. Think tanks including the Adam Smith Institute and New Economics Foundation are urging her to use the Budget as a chance to overhaul what they call a “broken” tax system: abolish stamp duty, merge income tax and NI, reform council tax. (Olivia Konotey-Ahulu – The Guardian, 5th November.)

I would go much further: raise pension age gradually to 75 over next 20 years, phase out state pension entirely and mandate private pension provision for all those now under 40, freeze all benefit payments (UC, JSA etc) at current levels for rest of Parliament and let inflation chip away at value, merge income tax and NI and shift Employers’ NICs to employees, extend VAT base to include food at lower (5%) rate initially, growing to standard rate in 2% increments annually until standard rated. I know: a genius. Thank me later. Much later.

Tears of a clown???

Reeves says she will not resign if she raises income tax in breach of Labour’s manifesto. Reports suggest a rise of 2% in the basic income tax rate may be partially offset by a cut in NI contributions to plug a fiscal hole that various estimates put at £20-30 billion. (Rachel Sylvester, The Observer – 9th November.)

It is way beyond credulity to blame this on Tory mismanagement now. The last “black hole” curiously amounted to the total of Labour wage settlements for doctors, train drivers et al, but this one can only really be pinned on our Rache.

That said, actual detail remains murky and Rache still seems in “preparation mode.” The market of which she now speaks to subserviently is waiting and the Opposition is lining up cautionary tales. The key political point: if tax rises are inevitable, the administration may find itself breaking long-standing tax taboos, which could undermine trust further just as it seeks to rebuild the State. (Clue: Broken Britain’s revenues simply do not cover the promises it has already made to its citizens, let alone allow for any “sizzle.” CUT FUTURE PENSION ENTITLEMENTS NOW!!! You know it makes sense.)

Prisons and Justice: System Collapse

If you need a poster child for “State-capacity failure” last week’s story on prisoner releases offers the ne plus ultra of State failure narratives. Two high-profile mistaken releases from HMP Wandsworth, one a sex offender, one a fraudster, have forced ministerial statements and fresh scrutiny. (Brian Melley, AP News – 7th November.) Worst moment of the week: a toe-curlingly embarrassing non-statement at PMQ from the Deputy PM and Minister for Avoidance.

Do you think they're tunnelling IN or OUT???

The sex offender in question, Brahim Kaddour‑Cherif, was free for more than a week before arrest after his erroneous release, during which the Metropolitan Police say he had a “six-day head start”. ([The Guardian][5]) Government figures show the number of prisoner release errors has more than doubled year on year (up to 262 cases) in the year to March 2025. (Rajeev Syal and Peter Walker, The Guardian – 6th November.)

Commentators at the Institute for Government argue this is not simply one rogue error, but emblematic of a system in crisis: overcrowding, understaffing, archaic paper-based record systems and the failure to invest in basic infrastructure. (Cassia Rowland, Institute for Government – 28th October. ) The bottom line: when you cannot reliably know who is in detention, or who is being released you are facing a breakdown of one of the State’s core functions, ie “Broken Britain.”

Small Boats Madness

The collapse of the Prison system is certainly dramatic, but the utter madness of Labour’s belief that their provisional “one in, one out” agreement with France could in any conceivable world make any difference to illegal asylum claimant numbers is even more damning as it does not have any element of “it woz those numpty Tories’ fault” available to mitigate.

The “one in, one out” deal was announced by Starmer and Macron on 10th July. The first deportation under the agreement was made on 18th September. Since then, over the last 52 days a further 93 people have been deported “returned” to France under the agreement, while 57 people have been allowed to enter the UK from France legally. That’s a net 37 illegal immigrants removed from the UK over 52 days, but over that same period 6,654 illegal boat migrants have been detected (obviously there are no figures on undetected arrivals!) Data source: Home Office and Border Force Small Boat Activity Report. Does anyone at the Home Office have a Maths GCSE??? One in, one out is not even going to dent this immigration flow.

On top of the lack of basic maths, the scheme is a political liability – as the arrival of the second man to return to the UK, having already been deported “returned” to France as one of the 94, makes the PM, the Home Office and the Border Force just look like idiots.

Leadership Watch

On the leadership front Starmer’s “steady-as-she-goes” focus is hardly inspiring aggressive loyalty and although no major rebellion has broken in to the Labour frontbench as yet there are rumours of “manoeuvres” from acolytes of Wes Streeting, Ed Milliband and, hilariously, Lucy Powell. It’s probably fair to say that David Stumbly has ruled himself out of serious consideration by this week’s PMQ fumble. It is still worth keeping an eye on how the Budget narrative might chafe party whips, backbenchers and external finance markets: triple witching hour approacheth Rache! (Find someone to blame sharpish! My money is on Keir sacking Rache after the Budget disaster she is diligently preparing in a demonstration of decisiveness, which simply will not hold the line. You heard it here first – Ed.) “Milliband for PM” – God save us!

On the Conservative side, there is “ventilation” of the ongoing critique of what is framed as Labour’s mismanagement of public services (including prisons and justice), but no obvious challenge to the current leadership or large factional manoeuvres yet. Jenrick must be gagging for it and, given that he served as Minister for Immigration under Rishi Sunak, he could at least make more hay with the prison break scenario than he can with small boats and asylum. He must be praying for a large-scale prison break.

Institutional Collapse

Linking the two major stories, tax rises and prison releases, both focus on government capacity and credibility. The tax side tells us the state is having to ask more from citizens because the revenue base is weak. The prisons story tells us the State may not be delivering even minimal competence in its core functions. Together they reinforce the narrative of broken institutions struggling under demand, austerity legacies and underinvestment. The Beeb resignations add icing to the cake, suggesting that we are also not being told what is really going on as everything else falls apart too. Splendid.

But can it be fixed?

For ministers, this presents a trap: ask for more money (ie taxes) while simultaneously being unable to guarantee basic performance. If the public perception shifts to “we’re paying more and getting less” political risks will increase, especially among younger voters (and pre-voters) who feel squeezed without hearing about any potential payoff in the future. Why are we putting up with this shambles?

Clue for Rache: do some more reading around core maths and arithmetic skills.
Clue for the Beeb: bring in a man (yes, a man) from McKinsey to save the Charter.


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