SHRINKING SPACE FOR DIALOGUE, REDUCING PERSONAL LIBERTIES, NO MONEY ANYWHERE.
“Repeat protest” curbs really do start to threaten freedom of expression
Newish Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood extemporised new plans to curb “repeat protests” after nearly 500 arrests at more pro-Palestinian demonstrations. The idea: if you protest too often, the Home Office can decide you are a menace. Balancing public safety, or just making dissent a scheduling problem? Civil liberties groups are having an attack of the vapours and really it does seem a bit much.
China spy case collapses under diplomatic caution
Two people accused of spying for China had their cases dropped. Why? Apparently defining China as an “enemy” under the Official Secrets Act ruffles diplomatic feathers. Officials argue legal definitions, evidential issues, blah blah, but it is really just political priorities overshadowing national security.
En passant this has revealed that playing nice to keep China relations smiley is more of a government priority than they would like their backbenchers to believe. “Tough on China, tough on the causes of China.” Let’s hear it again now, all together…
“Slasher” Stride PROMISES £47bn cuts, BUT
no-one cares, or is even really listening
Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride proposed sweeping spending cuts: trimming welfare for non-UK citizens, reducing the civil service to ~2016 levels, curbing green subsidies and slashing foreign aid to 0.1% of GDP to try to save (an untestable) £47billion. Whether these are serious suggestions, or just sloganeering remains to be seen. Voters will wonder whether “throwing money at efficiency” means “cutting stuff that help people.” They also think “they’re never gonna get the chance anyway.” Life looks different on a wafer-thin 61 vote majority eh Mel?
Immigration goes full hardline
Kemi Badenoch unveiled proposals to build a U.S. ICE-style “Removals Force” in order to deport 150,000 illegal immigrants a year (from the current 34,000). She also, launched plans to withdraw from the ECHR, repeal the Human Rights Act, ban asylum claims for illegal entrants and cut legal aid for immigration cases.
Critics say it’s a policy bonanza of human rights concern; supporters say it is what tough rhetoric looks like, but mostly it just apes what the Faragists got out the week before last. As a result this seems like an act of political catch-up (with added rightward lurch, just for fun because we don’t really believe that do we?) rather than agenda-setting with your own distinctive ideas. Just saying.
I discuss (OK, poke fun at) Kemi’s opening speech at her party conference in Manchester over the weekend in a separate piece, but there’s more fun to come with a “vision” speech on Wednesday: note to self – book dentist appointment for Wednesday.
Meanwhile, THE COST OF LIVING CRISIS IS JUST NOT IMPROVING
Household energy costs and pump prices continue to squeeze incomes, contributing to the UK inflation rate sticking stubbornly at 3.8%pa (CPI) with very limited relief, for borrowers at least, from August’s base interest rate cut from 4.25% to 4.00% flowing through in to pockets. The pressure from rises in both food costs and rents continues to bite.
Everyone is feeling under the cosh economically and there is nothing that provides any prospect of relief with Chancellor Reeves now returning to the “difficult decisions ahead” narrative that literally everyone knows means: MORE TAX.
What this all seems to add up to:
There is a strong tilt toward toughness: on immigration, protest, welfare, foreign aid. Whether this will galvanise the base, or alienate moderate voters remains to be seen.
Civil liberties are in the crosshairs: from restricting protests to removing legal protections, the movement looks more than rhetorical.
Labour is under pressure to show it can balance firmness and fairness. Conservative policies are moving rightwards as Badenoch tries to out-do Reform UK.
Meanwhile, public concern over money is not abstract: many people don’t have the cushion to absorb shocks or just the continuing price attrition they face every week. Financial anxieties may increasingly colour the reception of big political promises and threats. People feel increasingly angry.
There’s desperation in the air
So Britain, 2025: protests must be occasional; foreign policy must be friendly; migration must be stopped; welfare must shrink; individual rights must shrink. All the while, individuals may find their bank balances reduced to the point where desperation for change becomes all-pervasive.
You’re welcome.
If you manage to get through this week, check out our insta: @theworldofukpolitics, where we probably won’t post anything, so that might be sort of calming.
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