STORMCLOUDS GATHER

Hot on the heels of last week’s Welfare Reform climb-down and the forewarning of incipient rebellion gathering amongst Labour backbenchers over Education policy changes involving SEND, comes an underwhelmed reaction to the announcement of the Anglo-French “One In, One Out” illegal arrivals pilot scheme.

Then a spat between the Deputy Prime Minister and UNISON over her lack of support for the Birmingham Bin Strike. Then news that the Junior (now “Resident”) doctors intend to go back on strike in pursuit of their claim for salary restoration back to 2008 comparatives.

July

  The roar of a storm sweeps up
    From the east to the lurid west,
  The darkening sky, like a cup,
    Is filled with rain to the brink;
  The sky is purple and fire,
    Blackness and noise and unrest.

Christina Rosetti: "The Months: A Pageant" 

It all seems rather 2023, fag-end of a tired government sort of stuff at odds with Prime Minister Starmer’s optimistic newly-bristled broom, with which he promised to sweep away all that Tory confusion, corruption and chaos. As the Commons gradually deflates towards the Summer Recess on 22^nd July and their “well-earned” (hmmmm) six-week holiday, there seems to be rebellion fermenting on every front

In part this is a consequence of Labour’s 174-seat majority that, while welcome in itself, enables many more backbenchers to make their support of the Government somewhat less than constant and continual.  Will the Government slip through to Recess without scoring any public own goals? VAR technology may have to be deployed.

ONE IN, ONE OUT, ONE HOPES

Briefings early in the week were that there “might” be a deal to enable the return of some of the illegal “small boat” arrivals back to France. Although briefed as still “all to play for” with close and detailed negotiations underway, it turned out that “the deal” had in fact been pretty much nailed down before Monsieur le President had actually arrivéd. Someone clearly thought that the negotiations would benefit from some extra “will they, won’t they” drama.

Belgium, with significantly smaller resources and considerably less assistance has been able to intercept and/or prevent the departure of 90% of its English-bound asylum seekers, making it hard to believe that French inaction (despite significant British payments) was ever anything other than French policy.

However, reactions to the announcement of the “One In, One Out” scheme on Thursday afternoon  demonstrated the serious problems that Starmer’s government now faces. Overwhelming media reaction was negative:

“only 50 returns per week as a pilot project ???”,

“allow an asylum seeker with family already in Britain to relocate in exchange for every illegal boat refugee returned to France???”“

“a pilot scheme to return 50 arrivals to FRANCE WHEN 573 ARRIVED TODAY?”
(a statistic helpfully confirmed by HMG.)

While press and commentariat reaction varied from sceptical to incredulous out to downright hostile (“at least with Rwanda they weren’t likely to jump on the next boat to make the crossing!”) it would be true to say that the “one in one out” proposal itself is inimical to the basic pre-refugee stance of the very great bulk of Labour backbenchers, has little chance of avoiding legal challenge (even if it garners reluctant acceptance of the EU Commission) but comes nowhere even adjacent to convincing those most hostile to all forms of immigration or beginning to spike Reform UK’s most productive attack line “Stop the Boats!”

There are some obvious inadequacies:
– a policy that lefter-wing Labour backbenchers will instinctively despise
– a strategy that critically depends on French co-operation and implementation
– an acceptance of some migration in return for increasing difficulty for “the boats” – a mismatch between pilot scheme volumes and current daily arrival numbers

Playing the ball confidently down the wing, Starmer and Cooper aim their trial policy directly at their very open own goal. The illegal boat arrivals are not going down. It might have been better to wait for a turn in the weather and then just claim it was the result of the government’s pro-active spiking of the people smugglers’ organisations. Nigel and REFORM can’t believe their luck, while the Great British Eye-Roll gows like Topsy. The Bayeux Tapestry loan was a huge success though, schoolchildren of the realm unite in a lusty cheer!