U-TURN IF YOU WANT TO…
It turns out that watching slow-motion car crashes is not so much fun. Following the reinstatement of pensioners’ winter fuel payment just a month ago, “justified” by HMG’s sudden discovery that the economic catastrophe that they thought they had inherited from the Conservatives had miraculously cured itself, comes the inevitably gorier sequel: “U-Turn Part II: Welfare Reform.”
As the Labour Government’s first anniversary approached MPs planned a perverse celebration of their 174 seat majority. The tide of support for welfare and benefits reform turned and began to ebb very speedily indeed. Labour backbenchers’ hostility to the welfare reforms had been temporarily obscured by the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill and then by the US bombing of Iran, but came storming in to view last week. A wrecking amendment to the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill laid by Meg Hillier MP, Chairman of the Treasury select committee gained 126 Labour backbench signatures.
The Prime Minister was not for turning, dismissing criticism as “noises off.” Downing Street brought out the thumbscrews, wielding Angela Rayner to try to staunch the wound. Concessions were offered, buying off about half of the 126 rebellious MPs.
Nevertheless, as the Bill made its agonising way towards its Second Reading on Tuesday 1st July the whips’ fears mounted and, in desperation, the central purpose of the legislation (savings to be crystallised by changes to Personal Independence Payments) had to be removed from the Bill. With its major reforms removed, the empty husk of a Bill gained a majority of just 49 for its Second and now mostly useless Reading.
Starmer suggested that he may heve been “distracted” by recent and urgent foreign policy matters, but he offered no clear reaction beyond committing to listen to his backbenchers more closely (or “at all” as some suggested.) Some scented blood in the water and a potential defenestration of Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney. Others hoped that the Chancellor might be shuffled back to a post better suited to her competence level. For the moment, however, it seems that the Dear Leader’s favourite “let’s just ride it out” handbook has been adopted in full.
SEND us back to the trenches
All eyes turn next to the changes in education policy centred on the reform of the disastrously overspent and underdelivering Special Education and Disabilities (SEND) statement process. There has been an explosion in the number of pupils receiving new Education, Health & Care Plans (EHCPs) since 2009.
The Treasury had hoped to make some savings by reducing the number of children eligible for assessments and altering the basis for supplementary resource allocation.
Chances are now that these reform proposals will be watered down and the potential savings removed.
Source: IFS Report: “Spending on Special Educational Needs in England.”
Just 12 months after Labour’s electoral landslide, all hope of implementing any policies likely to deliver substantial spending cuts on the back of Labour’s “Change” agenda have all but evaporated. Junior doctors strike inbound. HS2 chaos continues. Small boat arrivals lead the evening news every other day. Trump wakes up with some trade tariff thoughts.Four years to go.
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