Immigration, Assisted Dying and Benefit Cuts with sides of the Chagos and Universities
It’s been one of those weeks in UK politics where the leakers and the sneakers conspire together to “warm the pot” on some issues that will boil over in the coming weeks before the House rises and Westminster moves to the South of France on 22nd July.
Leaving aside the Starmer Arson, which has all the features of another crazy Russian conspiracy and the On-Off theatricals of Ukraine-Russia negotiations so idiotically mis-played by the “Leader of the Free World” (© Disney or Marvel or similar) the Great British Public have been fed some scarcely nutritious breadcrumbs on
- immigration “policy” – at this point it’s pretty clear it’s being made up as we go along
- the assisted dying bill – a pretty aggressive attempt by its opponents to suggest that is losing support in the Commons
- welfare reform – where opponents of benefit cuts, including the discontinuation of pensioners’ winter fuel allowance are scenting increasing flabbiness in HMG’s line
UK Immigration Policy
Trailers for the upcoming White Paper (ie outline draft legislation for discussion) on UK immigration suggest that Labour will attempt to seem tough by tinkering at the edges of the ECHR definition of the “exceptional circumstances” that UK courts accept as blocks to extradition of illegal migrants. It’s not going to move the needle. Meanwhile just about every other country with a significant flow of illegals are brushing the dust off policies on “extraterritorial processing” which all seem spookily similar to the Tories’ Rwanda policy halted on Starmer Day One.
Labour are banking on the UK net migration numbers for 2024 which should be reported next week showing a significant reduction, but this will be quite unconnected to initial Labour “policies”, but rather the result of differences in arrival patterns – Ukraine, Hong Kong, Syria & the Middle East – and to James Cleverly’s 2024 alterations to the minimum salary requirement for employment visas and changes to the accompanying family visas granted to international students. Nevertheless, the simple reduction in the headline net immigration number may give Labour some breathing space to think of something (anything!) to actually do about this before Farage clouts them over the head with the failure to even set net migration targets.
Welfare Reform
The astonishment of Labour MPs at the removal of Winter Fuel Allowance from all but the poorest pensioners has been bubbling up since July 2024 and has now morphed in to a more general antagonism to the Chancellor who has been almost ritualistically gormless in meeting internal opposition with her brusque, slightly clueless headmistress non-response. This seems to be coming to a head with a letter circulating among backbenchers registering their scorn for the policy and their possible preparedness to vote against wider welfare reform measures (aka “cuts”) in the Autumn.
opposed the child benefit cap in July 2024, but the opposition has grown like topsy ever since
Such are the problems of a large majority, when MPs feel that they can vote against the government without fear of meaningful reprisal unless they are in line for a job. An Imminent Climbdown Alert has been issued. Probably coming up next week. Can Reeves stay in post? Questionable. She is not at all well-liked, has no Parliamentary “reach” and with every passing month seems to demonstrate that she is far from capable of understanding her brief. The clever money is probably on her being shunted aside this Winter (but it wouldn’t be a good idea to actually bet on this you Ministers of State folk!)
Assisted Dying
As Kim Leadbeater’s Assisted Dying Bill makes its tortuous way through the private members’ bill process (which is a form of assisted legislative dying itself) the opponents of the change are aggressively pre-announcing that MPs who supported the bill at earlier stages are “fading.” Their supposed concerns are reported as coalescing around the change from a judge-led process to a multi-disciplinary panel.It’s a reasonable PR strategy to try to target waverin, unwhipped MPs to allow superficial concerns to overcome an obvious need for change.
The fact that there simply are not enough High Court judges to make any significant time commitment to the proposed assisted dying processes without bringing the courts to a grinding halt is not sufficient reason to allow a sensible change to be used as a reason for equivocation and filibustering. HMG probably encourages this process so as to divert attention from the next big revolt.
HOWEVER!
Although perhaps less widely discussed and certainly not terribly well understood, two other issues have been coming to the boil out of the limelight this week: university funding and the Chagos deal.
University Funding
As lower-end UK universities see the squeeze on their income continuing while their costs continue to balloon (National Insurance changes, inflation-beating salary settlements, general inflation) and those with less than stellar results in many of their degree courses and ever-increasing dependence on the uncapped income from overseas students, some are now being forced to consider wholesale departmental closures or the sort of financial restructuring that looks very similar to bankruptcy.
As A level students from selective educational backgrounds decamp en masse to US and European universities in reaction to the Byzantine admissions qualification changes that are pushing them quietly out of their preferred selections and reduced entrance standards then require significant additional teaching and support resources to be expended for elite institutions to be able to claim their standards are not being lowered, the great mass of more ordinary universities are now confronting the fact that they simply may not be able to offer the full range of degree courses they have become used to fielding to attract foreign students and their income. For those thinking of applying for mid-tier universities in 2026/7 you have got to move to application safety – or think of moving out of the UK system entirely. There will be closures.
The Chagos
It’s all been quiet on the UK-Mauritius deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos listening post to Mauritius in return for a 99-year leaseback agreement. HMG have sturdily refused to reveal the real long-term financial costs of the deal but the backroom boys and girls have been amending agreements, treaties and leases while everyone remains (quietly!) astonished that Donald & Co have not torpedoed the whole thing. From the background chatter however the transfer of the Chagos and the leaseback of Diego Garcia looks as though it might get signed off in the next few days – although no further assessment of the long-term costs of the deal have been provided, perhaps because it’s a total too large to swallow for some.
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