No prizes at all for commentators who thought that Russia’s commitment to peace negotiations was only a ruse to keep the Donald talking and delay any real discussions of peace terms.
Under huge American pressure, Zelensky called Putin’s bluff and announced that he would be available to meet with Putin in Turkey on 15th May to discuss a ceasefire that would allow for substantive peace negotiations. After days of bluster, the Kremlin announced that Putin would not travel to Turkey to meet with Zelensky.
As you were.
Having temporarily acquiesced with the Starmer-Macron-Merz-Tusk approach of “Negotiate or face more sanctions” Trump then seems to have forgotten the need for pressure on Russia. Then Putin offered the deliberately confusing “Russia will commence negotiations, but not necessarily with me” line which seems to have been sufficient for Donny to just give up.
Prediction: Donald will now walk away from discussions, cut military and intelligence support to Ukraine and say “I tried, but it’s up to you guys now.” Even a child of, well, 17, could predict it.
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A chronology of the faltering Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations since the extraordinary Zelensky-Trump meeting in the Oval Office at the end of February 2025 makes it crystal that Vlad just played Donald. Politically, Putin has no option other than pursuing his war of attrition to maintain his grip on the Russian warconomy:
28 February – Trump meets Zelensky in Oval Office in Washington and generates synthetic rage at the Ukrainian President’s dress, demeanour and objectives
2 March – Starmer announces formation of “coalition of the willing” to provide Ukraine with additional European support including “boots on the ground”
5 March – USA suspends intelligence sharing with Ukraine
11 March – Ukraine agrees to US suggestion of commencing negotiations with Russia for 30-day ceasefire to enable discussions about terms for peace
18 March – Trump talks to Putin on telephone and Putin agrees to stop targetting Ukrainian energy infrastructure and to consider maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea
24 March – US delegation discusses conditions for ceasefire with Russian delegation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
28 March – Putin suggests that current Ukrainian government should be dismissed and replaced by a UN-supervised interim government to organise new elections on similar model to UN involvement in the former Yugoslavia
1 April – Russian foreign minister Ryabkov announces that Russia will not accept US proposals for ceasefire or peace negotiations and this does not seem to be an April Fool’s joke
11 April – US envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in St Petersburg for four hour chat and announces that he has discussed the long-term future of the five Ukrainian territories that Russia has invaded since 2022
14 April – In remarks from the White House Trump blames Zelensky for starting the war
17 April – Ukraine and USA sign memorandum of intent for future exploitation of Ukraine’s mineral resources
28 April – Putin announces 72-hour ceasefire to run from 8th-10th May over the VE Day celebrations (presumably to try to prevent Ukrainian disruption of Moscow celebrations)
8-10 May – patchy ceasefire disrupted by missile and drone strikes from both Russian and Ukrainian forces over Putin’s VE Day ceasefire
10 May – Starmer, Macron, Merz and Tusk meet Zelensky in Kyiv and agree that further sanctions will be imposed on Russia unless Putin agrees to a 30-day ceasefire
11 May – Trump demands that Ukraine agree to Putin’s offer of direct talks and Zelensky announces that Ukraine is prepared to meet Russia to discuss peace terms in Turkey on Thursday on 15 May
14 May – Russian list of delegates being sent to Turkey to discuss ceasefire does not include Putin and officials subsequently confirm that Putin will not travel to meet Zelensky
15 May – Trump, aboard Air Force One, says that he doesn’t believe that there can be any progress on Russian-Ukrainian conflict until he meets with Putin personally
16 May – Discussions between low-lever Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Turkey fail to agree any substantive steps towards ceasefire or truce, but agree small prisoner swap
Sources: The Beeb (most usefully their chronologically ordered Ukraine Update page), the NYT – particularly their Donald Trump spotlight page, the extraordinarily useful and super-humanly objective weekly Ukraine newsletter written by Svitlana Morenets for The Spectator’s Ukraine in Focus, The Atlantic – where the coverage is significantly deeper than Peter Hesgeth’s troubled Signal usage – including excellent recent commentary from Thomas Wright and of course the unparalleled wisdom of Sir Lawrence Freedman KCMG, CBE, PC, FBA whose erudite analysis is helpfully packaged in the Comment is Freed substack.
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